The Truck Driver Shortage

How Big Is the Shortage?

The numbers paint a clear picture. At its peak in 2021, the trucking industry was short over 81,000 drivers. That figure has eased somewhat, but the ATA’s 2025 analysis shifted the framing: the real problem isn’t just the number of available drivers — it’s the quality. Drug test failures, poor driving histories, and disqualifying violations mean the pool of truly eligible candidates is even smaller than the raw numbers suggest.

To keep up with demand, the ATA projects the industry will need to hire approximately 1.2 million new drivers over the next decade just to replace retiring drivers and meet growth in freight demand.

Why the Shortage Exists

There’s no single cause. Several factors combine to keep the driver pool consistently too small:

An Aging Workforce

The average age of an over-the-road truckload driver is 49. As experienced drivers retire, the pipeline of younger replacements hasn’t kept pace. The physical demands and lifestyle of long-haul driving — being away from home for weeks at a time — make it a hard sell to a new generation of workers.

The Under-21 CDL Barrier

Federal law currently prohibits drivers under 21 from operating commercial vehicles in interstate commerce. Most states allow 18-to-20-year-olds to drive within state lines, but not across them. This cuts off a large pool of potential recruits right at the age when many workers are choosing careers. The FMCSA has been running a pilot program to evaluate whether safely supervised under-21 drivers can handle interstate routes, but no permanent rule change has been finalized.

Quality vs. Quantity

ATA leadership has been direct: the shortage is at least as much about quality as quantity. Drug test failures under DOT protocols, poor driving records, and disqualifying medical conditions keep many applicants out of the cab. Federal driver qualification standards — including medical certifications, background checks, and skills testing — aren’t optional. When carriers are desperate for drivers, the temptation to look the other way on marginal applicants creates real safety risks.

Difficult Lifestyle and Lower Pay Relative to Demand

Long-haul trucking means extended time away from home, irregular schedules, and physical demands. Despite rising pay — driver wages jumped 2.4% in a recent year per the American Transportation Research Institute — the lifestyle remains a barrier for many workers who could otherwise qualify.

Women and Minorities in Trucking

One often-overlooked aspect of the shortage is how narrow the driver pool has historically been. Only about 6% of truck drivers are women. Minorities represent a growing share — roughly 39% — but the industry has historically failed to actively recruit from the full range of available workers. Expanding the driver pool is one of the most realistic long-term paths to addressing the shortage without compromising standards.

What the Driver Shortage Means for Crash Victims in Kentucky

When a shortage-driven decision leads to a crash — a less-qualified driver hired in a rush, an HOS violation enabled by dispatcher pressure, a fatigued driver who should have pulled over — those choices become evidence of negligence.

A few key questions worth asking after any serious truck crash in Kentucky:

• Did the carrier properly screen this driver before putting them on the road? (Driver qualification violations are a significant source of carrier liability.)
• Was the driver in compliance with federal hours-of-service limits? ELD data captures this precisely.
• Did the carrier have a history of DOT out-of-service violations suggesting systemic safety failures?
• Was there dispatcher pressure to keep driving despite required rest periods?

The FMCSA’s Role in Driver Standards

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration sets and enforces the rules that are supposed to prevent unqualified and fatigued drivers from operating commercial trucks. These include:

• Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) requirements — written and skills tests, medical certification
• Drug and alcohol testing programs — pre-employment, random, post-accident, and reasonable suspicion testing
• The Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse — a federal database carriers must check before hiring any CDL driver
• Hours-of-service rules — strict limits on daily and weekly driving time enforced through ELD data
• Driver qualification files — carriers must maintain documentation of each driver’s qualifications and record

When carriers cut corners on any of these requirements — and when a crash results — those violations become powerful evidence. Our team knows where to look and how to use what we find.